Biden voters are flocking to Donald Trump and it’s because of the economy

Polling in key swing states shows the Republican presidential candidate is winning the battle for the switchers

In the final two weeks of the presidential election campaign, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are laser focussed on two groups of voters.
The first is an increasingly small number of undecided Americans, who are torn between the two candidates and considering whether to vote at all on Nov 5.
But the second group, the switchers, is much larger. They are voters who can be persuaded to disavow their choice in 2020, and back the other side.
Polling in the key swing states, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph, shows Trump is winning the battle for the switchers.
His success is starkly represented in the data. In all seven battlegrounds, there are more voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 now supporting Trump than there are Trump voters switching to Ms Harris.
In Michigan and Nevada, both states Mr Biden won at the last election, the difference is especially marked.
In Michigan, 18 per cent of Biden voters and 16 per cent in Nevada polled earlier this week say they are changing sides in this election and voting for Trump.
Only 10 per cent of Trump voters in Michigan and 11 per cent in Nevada said they were voting for Harris.
The same phenomenon is replicated in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – the five other swing states that will decide the election.
Overall, the poll finds Trump ahead in two of the states, Ms Harris ahead in one, and the pair tied in the remaining four.
Support for Ms Harris remains shaky in the “Blue Wall” of northern swing states after Mr Biden dropped out of the race in July.
She is also behind by two points in Arizona, which Mr Biden flipped blue for the first time since 1996, and in North Carolina, the only one of the swing states that Trump won in 2020.
Several reputable election models now predict that Trump will win next month’s election, returning him to the White House after four years in the political wilderness. He would be the second president in US history to serve two non-consecutive terms.
The individual decisions of the millions of switchers at this election will be closely scrutinised by both parties after election day, regardless of which candidate wins.
Telegraph analysis of a separate national poll, also by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, shows that Trump’s strength on the economy and immigration is driving the exodus of voters from Ms Harris’s campaign.
Americans who voted for Mr Biden in 2020 but are now planning to vote for Trump are more likely to say those issues are among their top three priorities.
A quarter of switchers to Trump say that government spending is a major issue for them, while only 11 per cent of those sticking with Ms Harris say the same.
Trump has had less success with Biden voters who care most about abortion, election integrity and healthcare, who are more likely to say they will vote for Ms Harris.
The economy is usually the most significant issue of any presidential cycle, and this year’s campaign has been no different.
Ms Harris has proposed an “opportunity economy”, based on tax hikes for the richest and federal investment in startups and key industries, including green energy.
Trump has pledged to cut taxes and impose blanket tariffs on foreign imports, with especially high rates on Chinese goods. He has said he would abolish federal income tax on tips and overtime pay.
That strategy has paid off among his supporters, the data show. Those who care most about the economy are more likely to stick with him at the ballot box next month, along with voters who say immigration is a top priority.
His support is weaker among his own voters who care most about abortion, who are much more likely to switch to Ms Harris.
Trump has taken credit for the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which reversed federal protection for access to abortion in 2022.
He has since said that he would not sign a federal abortion ban into law, and believes that the issue should be settled by individual state legislatures.
Ms Harris has pledged to reintroduce legal protections for access to abortion through legislation, which would be put to Congress if she wins next month’s election.
Trump voters who care most about healthcare are also more likely to switch to Ms Harris.